Fade The Crowd
24h of data · 423,613

NO ACTIVE SIGNAL

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Fade the Crowd.
Bet Against the Worst Traders.

We track the most consistently wrong wallets on Polymarket so you can see where the crowd loses money — in real time.

Live Polymarket data · Updated every few minutes

For educational and research purposes only. Not financial advice. Past performance does not indicate future results.

Dumb Money Wallets
343,632
Bad Bets Analyzed
423,613
Last Qualifying Crowd Mistake
4m ago
Data refreshed · just now

Worst Performing Wallets (24h)

View Full Leaderboard

Based on last 24h of activity

Top 5 worst wallets lost a combined $626,507 in the last 24h.

#WalletNet CashflowROI
10xe8dd...ec86-$148,975-100.0%
20xd84c...07b9-$147,356-100.0%
30x204f...5e14-$112,245-100.0%
40x7523...4c4c-$109,104-100.0%
50x1979...7c9d-$108,827-100.0%

How Fade The Crowd Works

1

Ingest Trades

We pull every trade from Polymarket in real-time

2

Track Performance

We calculate PnL, ROI, and win rates for every wallet

3

Rank the Worst

We surface wallets that consistently lose money

4

You Fade Their Bets

Take the opposite side of the worst performers

Why fading the crowd works

Bad traders aren't just unlucky — they're systematically wrong. They buy overpriced YES positions driven by FOMO, panic sell at the worst times, and chase narratives instead of probabilities.

This creates negative expected value that compounds over time. By identifying wallets with consistently poor judgment, you can find contrarian signals that the market hasn't priced in yet.

Of course, past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Use this data as one input among many, not as a trading signal.

Metrics We Track

  • $
    Net Cashflow

    Sell proceeds minus buy costs — proxy for realized PnL

  • %
    ROI

    Net cashflow divided by total volume traded

  • W
    Win Rate

    Percentage of sells above average buy price

Data Sources

  • API
    Polymarket Data API

    Real-time trade feed with wallet addresses

  • API
    Polymarket Gamma API

    Market metadata, questions, and categories

  • 24h
    Rolling Window

    All metrics computed over trailing 24h